tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3046071861494986299.post7825652953430214077..comments2023-08-26T05:08:54.898-07:00Comments on Magic, maths and money: Some implications of the Bank of England comparing itself to the MetOfficeTim Johnsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06952723922503939504noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3046071861494986299.post-7247468695151389942017-01-09T16:47:17.202-08:002017-01-09T16:47:17.202-08:00You can try my UK weather map app, sounds like it ...You can try my UK weather map app, sounds like it might be what you're looking for. If not im always keen to hear suggestions to improve it https://appsto.re/i67L52g.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11961071494876225599noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3046071861494986299.post-2031332062989271142017-01-09T00:09:26.491-08:002017-01-09T00:09:26.491-08:00Its significant that you advised the BoE against t...Its significant that you advised the BoE against the deterministic line, yet they ignored this advice. It suggests an interesting commitment to a deterministic viewpoint and raises the question why they hold it. My intuition would be that they need to believe they have some control over the economy. Tim Johnsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06952723922503939504noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3046071861494986299.post-53680376402729856392017-01-08T23:16:18.291-08:002017-01-08T23:16:18.291-08:00Thanks. I recall, maybe wrongly, that Andy made t...Thanks. I recall, maybe wrongly, that Andy made the weather forecast analogy in June 2013 at an event at the University of Edinburgh, but it might have been an analogy to another physical system and my mind is playing tricks on me.<br /><br />I have a paper in review for PTRSA advocating that, in regard to (energy) policy, stochastic control models should be thought of as signifiers rather than representations. I explain this means using the model to point to the 'lay of the land' rather than give the answer, so I think we are both on the same page.Tim Johnsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06952723922503939504noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3046071861494986299.post-28633861062616236412017-01-08T16:06:16.610-08:002017-01-08T16:06:16.610-08:00"it was not greater data (10 weather ships us..."it was not greater data (10 weather ships used in the 1970s have been replaced by 18 weather buoys) that lead to the improved forecasts but greater computational power that has allowed finer scale simulations of the differential equations that has delivered the better precision."<br /><br />I think you are forgetting meteorological satellites. They allow to survey vast expanses in ways that were impractical before.Antoni Jaumehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15816775501025660503noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3046071861494986299.post-67494702254622572452017-01-08T09:18:18.613-08:002017-01-08T09:18:18.613-08:00Is not a key difference between the Met office and...Is not a key difference between the Met office and the BoE simply that the Met Office's forecasts have no effect on the actual weather that arrives? Whereas what the BoE says and does can effect the economy? Furthermore, this reflexive relation has to be kept 'below the surface' of what's said because its exposure would undermine the public perception of the BoE's pronouncements.(Although, in actual fact its something that everybody is aware of). <br /><br />From a PR point of view I think the comparison to the Fish moment is quite clever.... we remember that incident with some affection now (even though it actually had tragic consequences as you point out). I take your point about he manages to skillfully slip around Black Money. (In my own mind the Great Storm and Black Monday are actually very closely connected - my Bday is Oct 19th, and I remember that week well.)MBGhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18404729484594219550noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3046071861494986299.post-10670696806873292892017-01-08T00:44:22.017-08:002017-01-08T00:44:22.017-08:00Tim, I'm glad you picked up on this. I think t...Tim, I'm glad you picked up on this. I think there's a very good chance that Andy Haldane was in significant part influenced to consider the analogy between finance and meteorology due to my 2013 book Forecast: What Physics, Meteorology and the Natural Sciences Can Teach Us About Economics<br />https://www.amazon.co.uk/d/Books/Forecast-Physics-Meteorology-Sciences-Economics/1608198537 <br /><br />I presented the argument of the book at the BoE to Haldane and a number of others. In the book, I very much argue against the deterministic perspective, and emphasize the importance of understanding instabilities, which drive rapid and largely unpredictable changes, both in weather and in finance. But instabilities themselves can be understood, and this can give a better view of the conditions under which we should expect surprising things to happen, and also of the kinds of things that might happen.<br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Mark Buchananhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11288455251267863265noreply@blogger.com